After reading about the plan  Pennsylvania is considering that would change how the state allocates electoral votes, I was going to write up something explaining how the plan was a very bad idea like I did when Massachusetts signed on to the interstate compact.

But Nate Silver wrote something much better than I could. He highlights five problems the switch could create for Pennsylvania Republicans:

  1. The Electoral College split could work against Republicans and cost their candidate the election.
  2. The plan could undermine the integrity of the Electoral College, which is probably not in Republicans’ long-term best interest.
  3. The plan could motivate Democrats and lead to higher Democratic turnout both in Pennsylvania and nationally.
  4. The plan would significantly reduce Pennsylvania’s influence in the election campaign.
  5. The plan would probably become unpopular in the state over time, potentially costing some Republican office-holders their jobs.

I would only add that in a scenario where a state with a large amount of electoral votes swings an election because of a real—or perceived—partisan decision, popular sentiment might actually be strong enough to change the Constitution and eliminate the Electoral College. Americans still remember the last time that happened. But after the 2000 Electoral College debacle, any talk of changing the Constitution died out. If there is another controversy so soon after, though, perhaps that talk would resurface and would spill over to action and kill the Electoral College. And as Mr. Silver points out, that’s not in the long-term interests of the Republican Party.