(Hint: they’re probably worth nothing.) My coworker Jon Nagle has an Oscar contest, so I decided to fill out a ballot… and then decided to post my predictions (or, rather, guesses in some cases) here. We’ll see how I did later.
Best Picture: Avatar
For anyone who takes the film-going experience seriously, the achievements of Avatar cannot be ignored. In a recession economy, this film became the highest-grossing film of all time by well over $100 MILLION dollars (as of this weekend, it stands at $720 million). Dollars aside, the technologies both invented and pushed to the next level will have a profound impact on how movies are made in the future. Was Avatar the best film of the year. Perhaps not. But its contributions to the industry are unmatched.
Actor in a Leading Role: Jeff Bridges
I didn’t see Crazy Heart (or any other on this list) (actually, come to think of it, I’ve seen very few of the nominated films this year), but the Bridges has the buzz. And he won a Golden Globe. And a Screen Actors Guild award.
Actor in a Supporting Role: Christoph Waltz
He foxtrotted away with a Golden Globe, tangoed with a SAG, and tonight, he’ll waltz with Oscar. Sorry, couldn’t resist.
Actress in a Leading Role: Sandra Bullock
This one will be close, but the feel-good-ness of the film and her performance (so I hear) will speed her away with this award.
Actress in a Supporting Role: Mo’Nique
Is this a competition?
Animated Feature Film: Up
Just because it’s Pixar doesn’t make it a shoe-in, but this one’s a shoe-in as it was the film that was hiding under our porch because it loves us.
Art Direction: Avatar
For certain the best on this list. Breathtaking creativity.
Cinematography: Avatar
This will be either Avatar or The Hurt Locker, but the 3D-nature of Avatar will push it ahead.
Costume Design: The Young Victoria
I have no idea, but everyone loves a period piece, right?
Directing: Kathryn Bigelow
Because the Academy plays politics, this is her consolation prize for not winning best picture. Pretty good consolation prize if you ask me.
Documentary (Feature): The Cove
I just started watching Food, Inc. (disturbing, very, very, very disturbing), but I hear The Cove makes a bigger, umm, splash.
Documentary (Short): The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Topical.
Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
Didn’t see the film, but I understand the editing plays a central role to the success of the film.
Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
Yep, just picking something here.
Makeup: Star Trek
If Frida can win for a unibrow, then Star Trek can win for pointy ears.
Music (Score): Up
Typing Up here and not Avatar hurts me. This is the one category I feel I can give an honest prediction (does that mean I’m lying in the others?). Up was NOT the best score of 2009. Maybe Avatar wasn’t either. But of the five nominees, Avatar was by far the best musical achievement. Given my past abhorrence of everything James Horner, I can’t believe I’m advocating for a win over Michael Giacchino who is easily one of my favorite film composers. That said, Giacchino has won a Golden Globe, BAFTA award, and a Grammy. Tonight he’ll win his first Oscar. If the Academy asked me (they didn’t), Up wouldn’t have been nominated because the best Giacchino score of 2009 was Star Trek. If Up wins, though, I will definitely be happy for Giacchino. And at least this year, the as-Oscar-worthy-as-Windows-is-bug-free rubbish of Gustavo Santaolalla won’t win. (If you’re so inclined, you can read my reviews of James Horner’s score for Avatar and Michael Giacchino’s scores for Up and Star Trek.)
Music (Song): “The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart)”
It’s been winning other awards. How’s that for concise compared to the above category?
Short Film (Animated): A Matter of Loaf and Death
Nick “Wallace and Gromit” Park will win. But Logorama is awesome.
Short Film (Live Action): Kavi
No clue.
Sound Editing: Avatar
Sound Mixing: Avatar
I have no idea what the difference between these two are. But Avatar had great sound.
Visual Effects: Avatar
Avatar should win this award and some other super-awesome-technical-achievement special-award. Because the visual effects were better than Megan Fox, Scarlett Johansson, Miranda Kerr, and Bar Refaeli walking into my bedroom at the same time. With whipped cream. Seriously, there’s no competition in this category.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay): Up in the Air
The best? Or a consolation prize? Probably both.
Writing (Original Screenplay): Inglourious Basterds
This film will need something other than best supporting actor. So screenplay it is.
Well that’s the end of the list. Thanks for watching.
